Dr. Fauci: ‘Strong mitigation programs’ not made because of modeling, but coronavirus’ impact on China, Italy
Fauci: Real data trumps any coronavirus model
Coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci weighs in on criticism over coronavirus models.
Coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared on «The Story with Martha MacCallum» on Friday, telling the host he has always been skeptical of models, this as the projected number of deaths from the coronavirus in the United States continues to fall below initial reports.
«I have been and still am and will always be somewhat reserved and skeptical about models, because models are only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model,» Fauci said Friday. «And those assumptions that start off when you don’t have very much data at all or the data you have is uncertain that you put these assumptions in and you get these wide ranges of calculations of what might happen.»
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«But then as you start to accumulate data, […] that’s real data likely being influenced heavily by the mitigation programs that you put in the physical separations, that when real data comes in, then data in my mind always trumps any model,» Fauci added.
MacCallum asked Fauci — who is also director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — about the original death projection in early models now dropping 33 percent, asking if policymaking decisions should be made based on questionable modeling.
Fauci made it clear that modeling wasn’t the reason for «strong mitigation programs,» telling the anchor to look at China and Italy.
«I think it’s important to point out that it isn’t the model or the result of the model that really led to the decision to have such strong mitigation programs, such as physical separation,» Fauci said. «You don’t even have to look at any model. Just take a look at what happened in China. Take a look at what happened in northern Italy, how the hospitals were completely overrun and the draconian methods that had to be taken in China to turn down their outbreak.»
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President Trump on Friday said he believes the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic will be «substantially less» than the 100,000 projected last week, arguing the country is nearing the peak of the outbreak.
Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed to this report.
