Harry Kazianis: Kim Jong Un is alive—Here’s what Trump needs to do right now
North Korean media says Kim Jong Un makes public appearance
The report is unconfirmed and no pictures of the event have been released.
Although rumors and various reports have swirled over the last several weeks that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un was dead, late Friday night we received the first visuals and video of North Korea’s Chairman Kim —alive, walking and talking—touring a newly built fertilizer factory.
While there were voices who tried to quash the rumors in April, namely the South Korean government of Moon Jae-in, who, citing their own intelligence sources, claimed Kim was ‘alive and well’, many people did not listen.
And yet, we shouldn’t be shocked, as we have traveled down this well-worn path many times before. Back in 2014, Kim disappeared for nearly 40 days.
NORTH KOREA RELEASES PICTURES SHOWING KIM JONG UN’S FIRST PUBLIC APPEARANCE IN WEEKS
He was rumored then, as he was just recently, to have ‘died’ or to have ‘slipped into a coma’ or even have been rendered «brain dead.» And yet, walking with the help of a cane, Chairman Kim strutted back out in front of the camera six years ago with a smile on his face, having apparently undergone some sort of foot surgery.
In this Friday, May 1, 2020, photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, cuts a tape, watched by his sister Kim Yo Jong, during his visit to a fertilizer factory in Sunchon, South Pyongan province, near Pyongyang, North Korea. Kim made his first public appearance in 20 days as he celebrated the completion of the fertilizer factory, state media said Saturday, May 2, 2020, ending an absence that had triggered global rumors that he may be seriously ill. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: «KCNA» which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
There are, of course, certain facts we can’t deny when it comes to Kim that surely fuel anxieties about him: he is clearly in poor health.
He is reported to weigh about 300 pounds and at only 5’7” is morbidly obese. He is a heavy smoker, he is rumored to drink heavily, and according to multiple U.S. intelligence officials, works 12-15-hour days.
Kim was clearly wheezing when walking just a short distance with President Trump when they met last year along the Demilitarized Zone. Various observers have noted Kim seems to labor when walking short distances, losing his breath quite easily.
All of that surely keeps top Trump national security officials up at night. Why? Because if Kim were to die, it is an open question about who would take over North Korea—and who would control Kim’s arsenal of nuclear weapons that could kill millions of people within just minutes. While the most likely candidate is Kim’s well connected and influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, it can’t be ruled out that a struggle for power could ensue.
That could mean a North Korean civil war where different factions are armed with weapons of mass destruction—possibly meaning an intervention by the U.S. and/or China.
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While surely there will be time for reflection, the Trump administration must forge ahead, even during these difficult times when the whole world is battling the coronavirus pandemic, to craft at least a business-like relationship with Pyongyang.
Trump’s diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang has clearly resulted in a much more stable relationship with the so-called ‘hermit kingdom, achieving more in just three years than anyone thought possible.
Kim, for example, has not tested a long-range missile or nuclear weapon since late 2017, something that limits his ability to have confidence in those key capabilities that could threaten the U.S. homeland.
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But far more needs to be done to ensure we never go back to the dark days of nuclear threats or ‘fire and fury’.
President Trump must now work towards ending decades-old hostility with North Korea, a nation that can to very little to harm U.S. interests short of a suicidal nuclear attack.
First, Trump should make clear his goal is still the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula—but only after both sides have forged a working relationship and have a measure of trust to build on that can make that goal a reality and not just a talking point.
To that end, Trump should offer once again to meet with Kim when possible and end the Korean War, something that was never formally done, only halted thanks to an armistice. While a treaty would likely be hard to get passed in the U.S. Senate, a political deceleration ending the war signed by both leaders as well as by China and South Korea, would go a long way towards building trust on all signs, giving everyone a clear win and political capital to take home and use later when compromise to achieve much more comprehensive agreements is needed.
From there, both sides should open liaison offices in each other’s capitals, thus making diplomatic channels are open at all times and avoid any sort of miscommunications in the future.
Lastly, Washington and Pyongyang must begin the process of arms control—just like Ronald Reagan did during the Cold War with the Soviet Union—as a pathway towards lessening the chance of nuclear war.
While full North Korean unilateral nuclear disarmament would be ideal, it likely will never happen, as Pyongyang views it as its only ace card to deter any future thoughts of U.S. sponsored regime change. Instead, Trump should offer incentives for every verified step Pyongyang takes towards decreasing and then eliminating its nuclear weapons.
President Trump has shown the world that thinking completely outside the box when it comes to North Korea can achieve results.
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The rumors of the past few weeks should remind us all that Pyongyang has the potential to drive the headlines and spark a nuclear crisis like no other if North Korea were to suddenly become leaderless.
Now is the time to forge ahead with diplomacy—the stakes are too great to simply sit on the sidelines.
