Arnon Mishkin: Bernie Sanders’ impact – How he changed Democrats, US
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The day after Wisconsin voted Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders bowed to the reality of the Democratic delegate arithmetic and announced that he’s suspending his campaign. He intends to remain on the ballot in the upcoming states in order to win delegates and seek influence over the party platform.
In a sense, the current status of the campaign – not the bride, but seeking to be the bridesmaid – sums up his two races for the White House.
It turned out that the “Bernie wing” of the Democratic party amounted to roughly a third of the Democratic party. He lost against former Vice President Joe Biden because he couldn’t figure out how to grow beyond his core base. Consider the numbers: In Iowa and New Hampshire, he won the support of roughly 25 percent of participants and won the popular vote in each. In Nevada, he got 33 percent of the vote.
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But when the field narrowed, he still got roughly a third of the vote – and it wasn’t enough, as supporters of the other candidates decided to vote for Biden. On March 17, Sanders’ best state was Illinois, where he got his “third” (37 percent), but Biden won 59 percent of the vote.
But even though the “Bernie base” is just a third of the Democratic party – it’s an important third – and Biden needs to ensure solid support from them if he’s to win in November.
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In the most recent Fox News poll, conducted after the COVID-19 crisis forced many Americans to remain at home, Biden appears to have a solid lead over President Trump. He’s at 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
Looking at voters who are undecided or with other candidates, it’s clear why Biden is looking to those Sanders voters. Among voters who disapprove of Trump, Biden has a solid lead, but fully 14 percent (one in seven) say they’re planning on voting for a third-party candidate, will refuse to vote, or say they still “don’t know.” In an election that likely will be decided by a small number of voters in a small number of states, losing one in seven voters who ought to be in your column should give Biden pause.
While Sanders tried twice (2016 and 2020) to lead the party, I suspect his impact will be long remembered for his role as the “bridesmaid” affecting current and future “brides.” It is likely to rank with other losing efforts that had a long-term impact on American politics: Barry Goldwater for the Republicans in 1964, and Democrats George McGovern in 1972 and Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988.
While Sanders didn’t fulfill his promise of bringing out enormous numbers of young voters to the polls, he did create a cadre of young and so far successful politicians who pursue his promises.
While Goldwater led the Republicans to a historic loss, he pushed the party to adopt a small government, conservative philosophy – and won over Southern white Democrats – in a way that led to the party’s historic successes from 1968 through 2016.
McGovern led his party to a 49-state defeat, but he still pushed them leftward and enabled Republicans to label the party as “soft on defense” – putting them at a political disadvantage for the next 50 years.
And, while Jesse Jackson never won the nomination, his campaigns were responsible for registering an enormous number of African-American voters, which has given the party an important base in many states and built the foundation that culminated with the election of Barack Obama in 2008.
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I believe Sanders’ campaigns rank with all three in terms of the size of its impact. He accepted the label of “democratic socialist” – historically an electoral albatross – but forced issues including “Medicare-for-all,” growing income inequality, eliminating student debt, and the Green New Deal, onto the public stage.
And, while he didn’t fulfill his promise of bringing out enormous numbers of young voters to the polls, he did create a cadre of young and so far successful politicians who pursue his promises. The most prominent of the “Bernie Babies” is, obviously, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who got her start as an organizer for his 2016 campaign. And there are a host of others already in Congress or seeking a path toward it.
Particularly in the current environment of the coronavirus pandemic, slogans that appeared “pie in the sky” two months ago – “Health Care is a human right,” “Raise taxes on the rich,” “Cut prices on pharmaceuticals” – are very much within the mainstream of traditional Democratic playbook.
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It’s too early to tell whether Bernie goes out as Jackson or a Goldwater – and builds the foundation of Democratic success – or winds up like McGovern – and creates a ceiling that prevents them from success.
But one thing is clear: Sanders’ campaign themes and issues will be a part of American politics for many elections to come.
